As US casualties mount in Iraq, the decision has been made to bolster the forces there with an increase in the number of tanks in the theater.  The good news in this policy is that the US military seems to be coming to the conclusion that it is in the middle of a shooting war and that the force in Iraq is insufficient to accomplish the mission.  The bad news is that tanks are the wrong solution for the problem at hand.

American attempts to crush the Falluja uprising and bring democracy to Iraq will fail, but not for lack of trying.  The basic flaw in US administration and western thinking is the assumption that Iraqis identify with the same basic values as do the Americans.

The past month has not been a good one for the Hamas terrorist organization.  In a four-week period it has lost its founder, Sheoikh Ahmed Yassin, and his successor, Abd el Aziz Rantisi to Israeli helicopter strikes.  Rantisi’s successor-designate, Mahmud a Zahar, has apparently refused to step into the position, for fear of an early martyrdom, so the organization has been left effectively leaderless.

 (From The Washington Times, April 21, 2004)

Under the auspices of the United Nations and the Washington-based National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, representatives from 14 Muslim countries gathered in Istanbul on April 12-14 to discuss implementing democratic reforms in the Middle East.

While it came as no shock that Syria and Iran boycotted the event, Saudi Arabia - cited often by the Bush administration as one of America's closest allies in the region and serious about reform - was conspicuous by its absence.

Interviewed on "Meet the Press" this past Sunday, Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry fully endorsed the Bush-Sharon deal whereby Israel will unilaterally withdraw from Gaza, and in return no Palestinian refugee return will be allowed, the US will support the continued construction of the security fence and certain West Bank developments will remain in Israel's hands in a permanent status agreement.  Jerusalem was also given a free hand in battling terrorism.  The fact that Kerry is known for his extreme liberalism makes his full agreement with President Bush even more significant and guarentees bi-partisan backing for the shift in American foreign policy.  On the Palestinian-Israel issue, Bush has drawn liberal America to the center, with Kerry leading the pack.

The Hamas is a terrorist organization, or so claim the United States and the European Union.  Hence, logic would demand their elimination.  Israel is doing just that when succeeding in the "targeted removals" of Sheikh Yassin a month ago and of his replacement, Abdul Aziz Rantisi on Saturday.  According to Israeli intelligence, the organization is said to be in disarray, which infers an inability to perpetrate further attacks.

Last Thursday, President Bush and Prime Minister Sharon met in the White House. Following their meeting, they exchanged letters and held a joint news conference, each presenting a prepared statement of their views of the present situation and possibly courses of resolution of the conflict.

It was natural that the media and commentaries focused on the impact of the meeting relative to Sharon’s proposal to disengage in Gaza, removing Israeli settlements and military bases from that area. Faced with considerable opposition from the Israeli right, Sharon had come to Washington hoping for support from Bush, and he received it in a number of ways.

In an interview last week Hamas leader Abd el Aziz Rantisi, in answering the question "are you afraid?" said that everyone must die, from one cause or another. Some from Apache helicopters and others from cardiac arrest. Rantisi asserted that he preferred an Apache. The Israeli Air Force was pleased to be able to grant him his wish.

This week’s Bush-Sharon agreement was a ringing US endorsement of Israeli policy towards the Palestinians.  Both men made it clear that time waits for no one, not even for PA Chairman Yasir Arafat who envisioned Palestinian administrative chaos, rampant terrorism and an Arab demographic flood as the ultimate weapons in forcing international intervention and/or the breakdown of a two state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.

Taking out Saddam Hussein is much easier than democratizing Iraq.  The Americans are now on the threshold of a popular uprising, despite their good intentions of bringing liberty and freedom to the Iraqi people.  As the June 30 deadline approaches for the American appointed temporary government to take office, Washington is being forced to realize that these supposed leaders enjoy little popular support.  The Sunnis and Shi’ites appear willing to agree to a temporary cease-fire, and possibly even one lasting long enough to let the Americans disengage but once there will be a “decent interval” the Shi’ite majority can be expected to enforce its will.  Democracy will not be an issue, it simply will not be.