The death of Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat almost three weeks ago has changed the pace and focus of the Palestinian terrorist organizations and their allies, at least for the short term.  IDF intelligence has reported a decrease in terrorist activity in the West Bank and Gaza since Arafat’s death, while warning that this may only be the calm before the storm.  The IDF assessment is likely to prove accurate, but the situation on the ground is somewhat more complex than a simple post-Arafat time-out for terror.

The pressure is on Israeli PM Ariel Sharon.  Internationally, there are demands that he cut a deal with the Palestinians for the return of Gaza, turning his unilateral Disengagement into a bi-lateral agreement.  Interestingly, there are those both to his left and right in Israel who are demanding the same.  The Israel Left has always claimed that all dealings for peace must be done with Palestinian concurrence, while those on the Right figure that if there will be direct negotiations, they can only fail and the Gaza Disengagement will be stillborn.

Marwan Barghouti has been making headlines recently as a possible candidate for head of the Palestinian Authority following the death of Yasir Arafat.  As the NY Times points out, “he is the most popular, his personal story the most compelling, his command of Hebrew and understanding of Israelis the most sophisticated.” (“Jailed in Israel, Palestinian Symbol Eyes Top Post,” NYTimes, November 19, 2004)  He would seem to be the perfect candidate for the job, with real potential to jump start negotiations with the Israeli government and end the four-year-old terrorist war.

Over the decades Yasser Arafat will be remembered best for having gained international recognition, justification and legitimacy for terror activities.  Representing the PLO, he gained world understanding and acceptance for the use of terrorism in the name of Palestinian national liberation.  Arafat had a major advantage on the international terror circuit since his actions were directed against Israel, which as a Jewish state, was never fully accepted by the community of nations as legitimate. This occurred, despite diplomatic protocol, such as the exchange of ambassadors and representation at the United Nations.

If it was not so sad, it would be amusing.  Yasir Arafat is dying – present continuous, and we do not know for how long.  Although greatly beloved by his people, he has left their society a shambles. Arafat is the father of twins; modern terrorism and a resurgent Palestinian nationalism.  He blended the two together, massacring civilians to obtain the international notoriety necessary to gain western media attention for the Palestinian cause.  One must recall that UN Resolution 242, passed just after the 1967 Six Day War, barely hints at Palestinian issues when stating:  "the necessity of achieving a just settlement of the refugee problem".  Neither the words "Palestinian" nor "Arab" appear.  Such an omission was a general reference to all refugees, including Jews who had fled Arab lands and those Jews who became homeless as a result of the 1948 War of Independence.  

With Yasir Arafat apparently on his deathbed, all sides and spectators are gearing up for the great event of his passing.  (We tend to believe that Arafat actually died quite a long time ago and was thrown back; he was bringing down the property values.)  Funeral arrangements, travel plans and power grabbing or consolidation are all on the agenda for the new Middle East that will emerge in the wake of his departure.

Most Israelis are jubilant that George Bush was re-elected.  As the most pro-Israel president ever, Israelis are expecting the same "understanding" for security concerns to continue.  But many have short memories.  Prior to 9/11 the Administration did not show great sympathy for Israel's confrontatin with terror.  Bush and specifically Sec. Of State Colin Powell constantly urged restraint, even in the face of the Dolphinariam Disco (June 2001) and Sbarro Pizza (August 2001) bombings.  Arafat was still the partner for peace, Israeli military responses were to be "measured" and there lacked convincing "proof" of Palestinian Authority complicity in the terror campaign.

When getting to the bottom of a scandal one is often advised to "follow the money".  By the same token the key to understanding Palestinian politics and who will inherit the leadership from Yasir Arafat now that he is seriously ill, is to "follow the weapons".   As long as Arafat held them and was said to be ready to use them against  Palestinian adversaries, he was percieved as in control.  By the time he exited last Friday the Palestinian Authority was only a name with no real power behind it.  It is said Arafat could have called off the terror attacks against Israel, but never gave the order, thereby leaving everyone to discuss his potential for bringing peace.  He has the added advantage of being the Palestinian national icon.