This week’s Paris conference collected $7.4 billion in pledges from
donor nations for the Palestinian Authority. Over the next several
years these funds are to be used to keep the “moderate” PA, led by
President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and PM Salam Fayyad, from total
financial collapse. One third of the funds are for development. US
Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice warned that such monies were needed to
“avoid bankruptcy” while Abbas spoke of “risking disaster” should the
monies not be forthcoming. The US will give $555 million and the EU
$650 million. Arab countries made pledges but are not expected to
necessarily pay up. Hosting the conference French Pres. Nicholas
Sarkozy asked for Israel to allow much freer movement for Palestinians
in the West Bank (meaning a removal of roadblocks) provided Israel’s
security was not threatened. Turning to the Palestinians he insisted
they must ensure “law and order” over their own people if there was to
be any chance of success. Here lies the Achilles Heel.
2007
Pledging Billions to the PA in Paris
This week’s Paris conference collected $7.4 billion in pledges from
donor nations for the Palestinian Authority. Over the next several
years these funds are to be used to keep the “moderate” PA, led by
President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and PM Salam Fayyad, from total
financial collapse. One third of the funds are for development. US
Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice warned that such monies were needed to
“avoid bankruptcy” while Abbas spoke of “risking disaster” should the
monies not be forthcoming. The US will give $555 million and the EU
$650 million. Arab countries made pledges but are not expected to
necessarily pay up. Hosting the conference French Pres. Nicholas
Sarkozy asked for Israel to allow much freer movement for Palestinians
in the West Bank (meaning a removal of roadblocks) provided Israel’s
security was not threatened. Turning to the Palestinians he insisted
they must ensure “law and order” over their own people if there was to
be any chance of success. Here lies the Achilles Heel.
Annapolis End Game: Jewish/Zionist Partial Success
 Israel’s 60th Anniversary celebrations began belatedly last week with a
ceremonial dinner in honor of the November 29, 1947 UN Partition Plan
advocating a two-state solution. The Palestinians and the surrounding
Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt rejected the
UN resolutions, invaded and fought for Israel’s destruction, were
halted and Israel survived the war. 78% of the Palestine Mandate
became Israel, 20% (the West Bank) was annexed by Jordan and 2% (Gaza
Strip) was held by Egypt. East Jerusalem, the destroyed Jewish Quarter
and Jewish holy sites remained in Jordan. It was a national victory,
spiritual it was not.
Annapolis: End Game First
 In the wake of the Annapolis Conference (celebrations?) there needs to
be an assessment of where Israel stands. On the plus side there
appears to be Arab world recognition, even if not formal, of the State
of Israel since virtually the entire Arab League including Syria, but
minus Iraq, did attend. The Americans made clear their commitment to
Israel not only on a moral level, but as a continuation of the
strategic relationship especially in confronting Iran. The Arabs, in
particular the Gulf States led by the Saudis, are fearful of Iranian
and Khomeinist Shi’ite influence in their region with the possible
consequences of the overthrow of the “moderate” Gulf State power elites
by Islamic extremists. Hence there is a convergence of interests
between Israel and the Arab world. Furthermore, those of the
international community attending the conference are viewed as
guarantors of a future Palestinian – Israeli peace accord.
Hamas Dilemma
 This week Hamas announced its “shock” at the agreement by Arab foreign
ministers to attend the Annapolis conference, quickly condemning the
Arab World for legitimizing the Israeli “conquest” of Palestinian lands
by their participation. The Islamist Hamas is in a bind. Five months
after capturing the Gaza Strip and completely routing the secular Fatah
Palestinian Authority forces they have still not consolidated control.
Just two weeks ago on the commemoration of the death of Yasir Arafat, a
pro-Fatah rally of a reported 200,000 proved just how much farther
Hamas needs to go before completing their victory. The demonstration
was broken up by Hamas terrorists who opened fire, killing eight and
wounding dozens. Hundreds were arrested.
Good Guys, Bad Guys, and Annapolis
 As the Annapolis Peace Photo Op approaches, the situation on the ground
gets more muddled by the day. The conference, downgraded from a peace
negotiation session to a meeting in which general declarations will be
read followed by dinner, is meant to be the opening round of more
serious talks that will take place over the coming year to sort out the
differences between the two sides and arrive at a lasting peace between
Israel and the Palestinians. After Madrid, Oslo, Wye Plantation, Camp
David, the Quartet, and the Road Map, we have finally arrived at the US
Naval Academy, and from here, presumably, we will embark on the high
road to peace. And if not, another wave of Palestinian terrorism is
threatened. It seems like déjà vu all over again.
Reflections on Yitzhak Rabin, Two Weeks Late
 Now that all the chatter and mutual recriminations have subsided over
the yearly memorial assemblies and services in remembrance of
assassinated PM Yitzhak Rabin (Nov. 4, 1995), it is certainly time to
analyze why Israelis feel “obligated” to suffer through the politically
intense late October, early November season. Watching The Watchdog
 Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?“Who watches the watchmen?” asked the
Roman poet Juvenal, paraphrasing a central problem discussed by Plato
in The Republic.The pursuit of “Justice” is a tricky business in a complicated world demanding that we make judgments about critical issues beyond our immediate perception like global warming, foreign policy, peace and war. Amir Circumcised not Circumscribed
Yigal Amir, convicted murderer of Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin 12
years ago, has managed to
Last Updated ( Saturday, 03 November 2007 11:51 )
Read more...
 drive Israelis up the wall once again.
Having been permitted a conjugal visit with his jailhouse bride nine
months ago, the Amirs are now the proud parents of a son. The ritual
circumcision ceremony – the brit – is scheduled on the prescribed
eighth day after the birth. Coincidentally, this falls on November 4,
the anniversary of the Rabin assassination. With that, the media and
public hysteria begins.
Back to the Future: Annapolis 2007
 It is hard to believe that in preparation for the Annapolis peace
conference the Palestinians are successfully picking up where they left
off after the Camp David 2000 (and Taba 2001) peace initiative failure
starring then Israeli PM Ehud Barak, the late Palestinian Authority
Chairman Yasir Arafat and then US President Bill Clinton. The
Palestinians could have had a thriving state by now but they insist
that every last one of their demands be met. They are dictating terms
of a final accord, not negotiating compromises. Last time Arafat &
Co. threatened and implemented a violent response because Israel did
not accept 100% of their stated conditions. The same threat is being
made again.
Conference to Nowhere
 Despite all indications of its impending failure, the November Mideast
peace conference, to be hosted by the US in Annapolis Maryland is going
ahead as planned. US Sec. of State Rice is turning it into a regional
affair, with great hopes of drawing in the Saudis, the Gulf States,
Egypt, Jordan and possibly even Syria as supporters for a Palestinian –
Israeli peace to be brokered by the Americans and seconded by the
Quartet (composing the US, Russia, the European Union and the UN).
Israel’s PM Ehud Olmert and Fatah’s Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) will be the stars of a show designated to
implement the two-state solution by use of the much heralded “Road Map.” |
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This past week the Israeli government decided to declare Gaza a
“hostile entity,” after years of terrorism emanating from that area.
Many Israelis felt the decision to be too late by 5-7 years, but on the
principle of “better late than never” it was generally well received by
the public. There is good reason for this positive reception.
As the cloud of secrecy continues to hover over the Israeli Air Force
(IAF) strike against Syria some ten days ago, a number of conclusions
may be drawn from the event, keeping in mind that the official
information remains highly classified.
The massive bombing two weeks ago in northern Iraq not far from the
Syrian border is symptomatic of the overall collapse of any semblance
of law and order in that supposed country. This time the victims were
the Yazidis, a small semi-Moslem sect accused of heresy by Sunni
extremists and Al Qaeda. Four truck bombs killed over 500 and wounded
more than 1,500. The marginalized, impoverished Yazidis posed a threat
to no one, except for those intolerant of anyone different from
themselves. But such is the power of extremists as they smash any
inkling of consensus concerning the future of a united Iraqi nation
state. Iraq can only be unified by a centralized government willing to
use massive force to crush separatism, real or imagined. Since 1958
when British influence was booted out with the overthrow of the
government by General Kassem and more intensively with the rise of the
Arab secular, socialist and nationalist Ba’ath party in the early
1960s, force or the threat of its implementation by the central
authority was the glue holding the modern Iraqi nation state together.
By this autumn Israel and the Palestinians are expected to begin
permanent status negotiations within the framework of an international
forum for peace in the Middle East. The two main players are to be
Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman (President)
Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen. So how will this event be
different than all the others, including the Oslo process? This time
Israel and the Palestinians are to arrive at a final agreement first
and only afterwards are the sides to discuss the step by step
implementation. There are to be no more interim agreements, just the
permanent or final status accords. The mechanism will then be built
for implementation. The idea is that everyone will know the “price for
peace” upfront and both governments will be able to prepare their
populations for the “inevitable”. 
