Since autumn 1983, some 25 years ago terrorism took a new direction with the Islamic fundamentalist suicide bomber leading the way.  The first suicide bombers detonated themselves against the American and French peace keeping forces in Beirut and their diplomatic personnel and shortly afterwards against Israeli forces.  The death of 241 Marines at the hands of a suicide truck bomber was the height of the Hezbollah operation.  Since then the world has known a never ending string of Islamic terror (such as the attacks in India recently), in particular the suicide bomber type.  There are those who try to blame it on the West and in particular Israel, claiming the suicide bombings are the result of a form of "occupation" and have little to do with Islamist perspectives.  There are many minorities world wide who certainly perceive themselves as living under some sort of occupying power or have lived under one in the past, yet they on the whole are not involved in suicide bombings.

The attack on Mumbay last week added yet another page to the large volume listing the deadly activities of terrorist organizations.  As attacks continue, in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, authorities are sifting through the destruction and tragedy in India, trying to find clues to “bring the perpetrators to justice” and to gather intelligence to help thwart future attacks.  The first lesson of the attacks has already been misunderstood: this is not a criminal justice issue; it is war.  This is not a new issue, but the lesson has yet to be learned (see “Justice or a Just War,” Archives, 13 September 2001. [http://www.me-ontarget.com/2001-archives-31/september-archives-100/45-justice-or-a-just-war]).

Two months from now with the Obama Administration taking office one can expect a change in US Middle East policy, but much less drastic than many would expect.  The president-elect is already shifting centrist and moving back to the Clinton years as will be noted by his advisors and candidates for cabinet positions. Hillary may even become secretary of state, but there will be one major difference, this is the world after 9/11.  Any radical reappraisal of the Israeli-American relationship does not appear to be in the offering. 

Barak Obama's first order of business will be the American and world economy, not Israel and the Palestinians (or Syrians).  Like everyone else he wants to know where the bottom of the financial abyss lies (how many lost trillions?) so the federal government will be able to plan its massive bailouts, economic programs and in the end decide "who will live and who will die."  To stimulate the world economy, oil prices must be held steady and kept low, meaning the Saudis must be in the loop in quite a bit of decision making.

Words have meaning.  They were also meant to deceive as the early 19th century French foreign minister Talleyrand pointed out with his famous statement, "Language was devised to conceal thought."  When discussing peace or conflict resolution in the Middle East many consider themselves expert at attempting to use the correct terminology to commit oneself to a policy of peace and reconciliation while ensuring one's own interests.  Each side understands the terminology from its own perspective and acts accordingly in the hope of there being enough overlap with one's adversary turned peace partner to guarantee an end to violence.

The problem is, sometimes the terms used have lost their meaning or are misinterpreted by one side or the other.  This is particularly true in the internal discourse between Jewish and Arab citizens in the State of Israel.  Recently inter-communal riots swept through Acco on Yom Kippur and immediately afterwards.  Suddenly "co-existence" between Jews and Arabs was deemed to have failed.  In particular the Zionist Left and moderate Israeli Arabs (some call themselves Palestinians with Israeli citizenship) are fond of living in "co-existence".  Unfortunately such "co-existence" has led everyone to a Pandora's Box of misunderstandings.

After the failure of Kadima faction Chairwoman Tsipi Livni's attempts at building a coalition to replace Ehud Olmert's government it is imperative that elections be called.  It is expected that Feb. 10, 2009 will be the date.  But of course electioneering has already begun. It is not only a question of which party will gain the most seats of the 120 in the Knesset up for grabs but who will form the coalition.

According to the recent polls Linvi's Kadima is leading former PM Benyamin Netanyahu's Likud by a few percentage points.  Together they grab close to 60 seats and would need the support of one more political party to form a coalition.  Should this remain the case the choice will come down to two, either the leftist Labor Party led by the present defense minister Ehud Barak or the Yisrael Beitainu faction led by Avigdor Leiberman.

The era of boorish capitalism is drawing to a close as markets around the world are shaken by the American sub-prime disaster.  The ripple effect not only collapsed such enormous investment houses like Lehman Brothers but also threatened Merryl Lynch, the insurance giant AIG and the mortgage companies Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae.  In today’s global village no one works in a vacuum.  As we all know the US administration has begun a $700 billion bailout.

Not long ago communism/socialism came crashing down, not only with the end of Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and the unraveling of the Soviet Union from 1989-91 but with the defeat of much of the social welfare system worldwide.  In many cases the former Russian satellite nations and republics became overwhelming in their capital incentive policies while Great Britain in particular replaced a collapsing socialism with hard line capitalism led by Margaret Thatcher in 1979.  The United States, never a bastion of the welfare state became even more capitalist with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980.  Western Europe followed suit.  For almost 30 years capitalism washed socialism aside and today we are paying the price of that massive victory.

A little known advance in conflict resolution is taking place in the northern West Bank (Judea and Samaria) as pro-Fatah Palestinian Authority forces attempt to defeat Hamas and terror activities in the Jenin region.  Almost forgotten is the evacuation of four Jewish settlements between Jenin and Nablus in August 2005 just a few days after the Gaza Disengagement.  Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative elections in January 2006 and overthrew the power sharing arrangement with Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) in the Gaza Strip in June 2007 when their armed uprising defeated a 22,000 strong Palestinian Authority police force.  From that moment on the Fatah controlled PLO led by Abbas has been struggling to gain full control over the West Bank.  With a sense of urgency the Americans sent Gen. Dayton to train their forces in one last attempt to stave off a Hamas takeover of the West Bank as well.  This first test for the PA is to impose law and order while crushing the Hamas.  Everyone knows that to come to terms for peace will only be possible if the PA emergency government sitting in Ramallah and led by Abbas and Salam Fayyad will be victorious in its civil conflict against the Hamas Islamists.

Several major moves are underway concerning Israel and the Palestinians, most of them without an overwhelming amount of publicity, but they are crucial events nonetheless.  PM Ehud Olmert is on his way out, although that might take months and hence he is pushing his “consolidation” or “realignment” agenda openly without fear of condemnation or of losing votes in what appears to be the upcoming election.  The Palestinians are not sitting still either.

In Gaza the Hamas is being replaced by the more radical adherents of Al-Qaeda, even if they do not take orders from bin Laden personally.  The Islamic revolution in Gaza is pushing towards the pinnacle of extremism forcing Ismail Haniyah’s government into a corner by demanding an end to the calm or “tahadiyah” with Israel along the Negev frontier.  Hamas is now viewed as moderates when speaking in revolutionary terms and will be confronted with the choice of eradicating the Al-Qaeda types or of further radicalizing their own stance.  Call it “beat them or join them.”  Either way the process bodes ill both for Israel and Abu Mazen’s (Mahmoud Abbas) Palestinian Authority and secular Fatah faction.

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The Mideast: On Target team

…and, as the Georgians learned to their dismay, some days the bear gets you.

The Russian onslaught brought back images of the Cold War and the Soviet “evil empire” threatening to roll over opposition, as it did in Eastern Europe and around the rim of its borders.  This attack, taking place nearly two decades after the fall of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, surprised those who still clung to the belief that we have entered a new era in which major powers would no longer smash their way into their neighbors’ territory.  Fukuyama, the prophet of “The End of History,” was apparently wrong.  Again.