after leaving in August 2005. The withdrawal was unilateral, yet accompanied by guarantees; Egypt was to ensure the halt of all contraband smuggling into the Strip while the Americans obligated themselves to stand behind Israel in its battle against terrorism even should Israel need to cross into Palestinian areas. Rocket fire into Israel from Gaza began under Yasir Arafat's Fatah led Palestinian Authority rule already early in 2001, continued under Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) who was elected in January 2005 (Arafat died in Nov. 2004) and intensified when Hamas overthrew the PA regime in June 2007. Whether discussing a hudna (Islamic cease-fire) or tahdiya (Islamic period of calm) the shell fire continued from Gaza into the western Negev. The last tahadiya lasted half a year, from the middle of June to the middle of December and ended with a bang as Hamas began pounding Israel with 60 rockets a day. Despite the expectation of rain, cold and the least optimal conditions, Israel decided to respond with massive air strikes on Dec. 27 and began a ground offensive a week later.After the US – Israel Memorandum of Understanding signed Friday by Sec. of State Rice and Foreign Minister Livni and diplomatic intervention by the European Union, Egypt and the UN, Israel announced a unilateral cease-fire which was promptly rejected by Hamas. The government swore to take no offensive action but promised to respond if either the army is fired upon or Israel's cities are rocketed. Hamas announced that it will only consider a cease-fire once all Israeli forces withdraw and the crossings between Israel and Gaza are reopened. The MOU deals almost entirely with efforts to halt arms smuggling, especially by Iran to "Hamas and other terrorist organizations in Gaza". Egypt and Europe are to participate in the effort. Egypt has a 14 kilometer (8 mile) land border with Gaza where over 500 tunnels became the central smuggling conduit along with the Strip's almost 40 kilometer (25 mile) long coastline.
Iran is the main weapons supplier, using the Sudanese and Egyptian coasts on the Red Sea for landing and eventual transport through Sinai to the Rafiah border region. Similar to the Second Lebanese War Israel fought an Iranian proxy, this time Hamas, the last time Hezbollah. Egypt, the other secular Arab countries, the US and now the Europeans are all aware of this fact and are coordinating policy through summits being held this week to halt the Iranian advance. Catching arms shipments in route to Gaza (or elsewhere) will be quite difficult. Quarantining Gaza and allowing in only civilian supplies is the second and most important level of the operation. This depends on Egypt where cooperation will be covert in order not to stir up Moslem Brotherhood opposition.
As for the Hamas demands, Israel intends to withdraw its troops but will not do so under fire. Constant attacks by Hamas and other terror organizations destroyed all possibilities of bilateral border crossing cooperation. At the Erez Crossing there were numerous attacks eventually leading to the closure of the joint Palestinian-Israeli industrial zone where over 4,000 Palestinians were employed. The crossing itself was opened intermittently and was nearly demolished in a thwarted car bombing in June 2008. Attacks against Israeli and EU personnel at Sufa, Karni, Kerem Shalom (Gilad Shalit was abducted not far away) and Nahal Oz (fuel supply paid for by the EU) led to frequent shutdowns. The EU monitored Rafiah entry between Gaza and Egypt was forcibly closed at varying times due to terror attacks resulting in the flight of their European supervisors, who refused to return for until their safety was guarenteed. In the last week crossings between Israel and Gaza were operating during the "humanitarian corridor" of 3-4 hours a day. Hamas responded by firing rockets specifically during this self-imposed cease-fire, knowing they will draw an Israeli response. For Hamas its greatest potential ally is Palestinian civilian suffering which if played correctly can breed greater radicalism.
The two major issues today are the rocket attacks against Israel and the opening of the border crossings according to Hamas dictates. Hamas reportedly is willing to consider a cease-fire for a year with the possibility of an extension; Israel wants a cease-fire – forever. Hamas wants an unconditional opening of the border crossings while Israel demands strict supervision or no crossings at all into Israel. As for the Egyptian border at Rafiah, tough surveillance is in demand to foil smuggling attempts while tunneling under the Philadelphi line must be thwarted not only with patrols but with physical obstacles – possibly an enormous moat.
With Hamas acceptance of the cease-fire coinciding with the Egyptian sponsored summit at Sharm el-Sheikh, Pres. Hosni Mubarak is hoping to direct Arab world diplomacy towards taming Hamas and the radical Islamists. The Hamas timetable contains the demand for Israel to leave the Strip within a week and to open the crossings or face the consequences of reinitiated hostilities.
Three major questions remain: How will Israel respond to intermittent shelling?
Which crossings will be opened and under what conditions? And –
Will the smuggling of contraband arms and ammunition be halted through international cooperation?
The fourth question is who will rebuild the Gaza Strip – Europe, the US and Arab moderates or Iran and radical Islamist organizations. The winner will take the hearts and minds of the Gazan population. It can also determine who will have more influence over Hamas.
On a final note Gazans are expressing furious anger at Israel – but this was expected. More significant is how they will see Hamas in the future, as destroyers or saviors? At the moment most express solidarity with Hamas but in an Islamic dictatorship who knows what the people are truly thinking? As time passes retrospection takes over. The answer will only be known years from now.
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