Unconventional Wisdom

 
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2009

Hamas War and Cease-Fire

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Reluctantly, Israel re-entered the Gaza Strip only three years and four months after leaving in August 2005.  The withdrawal was unilateral, yet accompanied by guarantees; Egypt was to ensure the halt of all contraband smuggling into the Strip while the Americans obligated themselves to stand behind Israel in its battle against terrorism even should Israel need to cross into Palestinian areas.  Rocket fire into Israel from Gaza began under Yasir Arafat's Fatah led Palestinian Authority rule already early in 2001, continued under Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) who was elected in January 2005 (Arafat died in Nov. 2004) and intensified when Hamas overthrew the PA regime in June 2007.  Whether discussing a hudna (Islamic cease-fire) or tahdiya (Islamic period of calm) the shell fire continued from Gaza into the western Negev.  The last tahadiya lasted half a year, from the middle of June to the middle of December and ended with a bang as Hamas began pounding Israel with 60 rockets a day.  Despite the expectation of rain, cold and the least optimal conditions, Israel decided to respond with massive air strikes on Dec. 27 and began a ground offensive a week later.
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Demanded: End Game Scenario

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Israel's ground offensive in Gaza is said to be going well.  Maybe, but the magnitude of such an operation would have been unnecessary had Israel acted eight years ago when the first rockets were fired.  Other opportunities existed in 2002 – 03 when operations almost took place (as Israel was operating in the West Bank) and after the Hamas overthrow of the Palestinian Authority and resulting increased rocket fire in early summer 2007.  The latest tahadiya or "calm" from June to December 2008 allowed Hamas to fully arm and begin the latest conflict.  A major aerial and ground assault similar to today's in late spring 2008 in response to massive Hamas shelling was in order, not a tahadiya.  Instead Jerusalem went the peace seeking, diplomatic route, put off the operation for half a year and today is battling against a much more formidable Hamas adversary.

Last Updated ( Friday, 16 January 2009 10:39 ) Read more...
 

Phase 3: Israel's Military and Diplomatic Objectives

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Israel's military operation in Gaza has gone through its first two phases; intense destruction of Hamas military and regime installations (beginning Dec. 27) through aerial bombardment and the beginning of the ground assault on Jan. 3 which has cut the Strip in half between Gaza City and Deir el-Balah.  Concurrently the UN passed Res. 1860 calling for a cease-fire and immediate Israeli withdrawal but established no formula for implementation.  Khaled Mashal of the Hamas political office in Damascus has announced the outright rejection of the resolution which also called for the end of smuggling of arms and ammunition.  Leading the Hamas charge he has demanded continued "resistance" until ultimate victory.  Mashal also rejects any supervision of the border crossings with Egypt, the closing of the tunnels and the accompanying weapons shipments and the stationing of an international force in Gaza – just another "occupation" in his words.
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World Hypocrisy, Again

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Similar to the Second War in Lebanon in 2006 much of the world is at its hypocritical best.  Most want Israel to smash the Jihadists and then condemn Israel for following through.  North America, Europe, China, India (remember Mumbai?), Arab secular regimes and many other nations want Islamist influence crushed but are critical of the Israeli handling of the conflict in Gaza and are calling for a cease-fire, at least publicly.  Privately they want Hamas and any other Islamists routed.  True, many have accused Hamas of initiating the conflict through its never ending bombardment of southern Israel but once confronted with painful scenes of suffering by Gaza's civilian population they shy away from holding Hamas responsible for the bloodshed.
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Hamas Perspectives and Options

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The old adage that one can plan how to begin a war but where it ends, nobody knows, is particularly pertinent to Hamas.  Khaled Mashal who heads the organization's political office in Damascus was in Cairo this week to begin arranging a cease-fire with Israel.  He is reported to have remarked that Hamas' shelling of Israel from the end of the tahadiya (calm) on Dec. 19 until the Israeli aerial bombardment on the 27th was only meant to pressure Israel into accepting Hamas demands – in particular concerning the crossing points, but were not meant to bring about a full scale conflict.
Last Updated ( Saturday, 10 January 2009 21:08 ) Read more...
 


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