Unconventional Wisdom

 
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Egypt vs. Hamas (and the Moslem Brotherhood)

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Hamas decided to go to war in the aftermath of the tahadiya (calm) by firing dozens of rockets into Israel each day for over a week (eventually reaching a daily count of 60).  The hope was to rally the Arab/Islamic world to their side, very similar to Yasir Arafat's strategy when he turned down the Camp David peace initiative and the Clinton Outline during the second half of 2000.  The Palestinian Authority's Low Intensity Conflict/Terror Offensive - better known as the "Second Intifada" in popular journalistic terminology failed miserably yet Hamas hopes to succeed as they expect an increasingly Islamicized Arab world to come to their aid. 

But Hamas could not do it on their own.  With some 500 tunnels connecting the Egyptian border with southern Gaza at Rafiah, weapons, ammunition and massive amounts of explosives passed underground into Hamas hands.  Cairo refused to take any serious action to halt the smuggling when a simple blockade to the west of Egyptian Rafiah was all that was necessary before the contraband made its way underground.  It appears Egypt wanted to avoid a showdown with Hamas and its own Moslem Brotherhood who gained increased support in the last election.  To allow a smoldering border war between Hamas and Israel seemed to be preferable as opposed to trying to repress the Islamists and possibly facing an explosion on the streets of Cairo.

But Hamas as a faction of the Moslem Brotherhood seeks the grand strategy of Islamicizing the Middle East and eventually the world as spelled out in their covenant.  Ideologically they had no choice but to go to war.  As for material well being there was no real improvement in Gaza and after a year in power Hamas has nothing to show for its "revolution".  Steadfastly ideological, Hamas refused all compromises brokered by Egypt and preferred constant conflict with Israel.  The Hamas diocentric leadership is steeped firmly in the belief of their own invincibility as Allah is their patron in the war against the infidels and heretics.  Such logic dictates their missile offensive against Israel.  To further their strategy for ultimate victory Hamas moved from being a tactical nuisance to the Jewish State to upgrading itself into a strategic threat by increasing its rocket capacity whereby the port of Ashdod serving Tel Aviv and the center of the country and the capital of the Negev, Beersheva  were now victims of missile attacks. Peace is "defeat" and was never an option for Hamas.

Similar to the Second War in Lebanon (2006) the West and the moderate secular Arab regimes are desperate for an Israeli victory cutting Hamas down to size.  The Islamists must be perceived as losing or at least halted in their jihad against secularization in the Arab world.  Public opinion shifts with the victor making any Hamas success a serious impediment to stability and a strategic threat to the Moslem/Arab world's secular states.  For Hamas the Islamization of all Arab states is just one of the first steps on the way to world domination in the name of Allah.

Overall Hosni Mubarak's regime leads the charge against the Moslem Brotherhood of which Hamas is one faction.  Furthermore, Iran although Khomeniest Shi'ite is their staunchest ally and thereby poses a challenge to Egyptian influence in the Arab world.  The issue is global and critical for secular nations in the Middle East.  All this begs the question as to why Egypt allowed massive weapons and arms smuggling into Gaza.  This certainly could help keep the conflict off the streets of Cairo while "marginalizing" and "compartmentalizing" it in Gaza.  But allowing five hundred Rafiah tunnels to function is not "turning a blind eye" nor is it just "inefficiency" in dealing with the problem.  Rather it is a pro-active policy of arming Hamas to the teeth.  And Israel agreed?  Knowing the Hamas Jihadist policies Mubarak helped them overstep their bounds and fall into his ambush, one where Israel would be forced into a military conflict to curb Hamas aggression.  Weakening Hamas damages the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt and throughout the Arab world.  Overall, Israel quite possibly got maneuvered into doing the secular Arab world's dirty work in taking on the Islamists.  The Jewish State may just be a proxy (with very few options) in the game of curbing Islamic and Iranian power in the Arab world.  But in the end that might just be the grand plan for acceptance if not legitimacy in some form.  Call it a confluence of interests.

Egyptian power is enhanced when being called back to mediate between Hamas and Israel to arrange a cease-fire.  On the other hand the Egyptians must be very careful not to overplay their hand and find an Islamic uprising in their back yard despite the setback suffered by Hamas at Israel's hands.

Paradoxical as it sounds, the secularists in the Arab world need an overwhelming Israeli victory and then they will negotiate the conditions for continued Hamas control of Gaza – albeit on their terms which are very similar to those of Israel and the West.  Such conditions are meant to weaken the Hamas to the point where sometime in the future they will be forced from power by the Palestinian people and a rejuvenated form of the secular Fatah movement will once again hold sway.
Last Updated ( Thursday, 08 January 2009 16:15 )