A month ago the Likud won the Israeli elections and Pres. Shimon Peres chose Benyamin Netanyahu to form the next government.  The Likud did not gain the most seats in the Knesset but rather their right wing faction was the only one with the choice of establishing either a center-right coalition with Kadima as their major partner or a hard line right/religious government which would include bringing in four to five other parties.  

Israeli general elections are here and most people were giving it the big "yawn" just a week ago.  The outcome appears predictable, former PM Benyamin Netanyahu (1996 – 99) will once again be premier as his right of center Likud faction is expected to take close to 30 seats in the 120 member Knesset.  Kadima, led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Kadima will poll in the vicinity of 25 with former PM and present Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Labor) getting 15 seats.  The big surprise is former minister Avigdor Leiberman's Yisrael Beiteinu faction which may receive up to 20 mandates.  A right winger, Leiberman is demanding loyalty oaths from Israel's Arabs while quoting anti-Israel statements by Arab MKs and local authorities.  In the shadow of the recent Gaza conflict and Hamas/Hezbollah demands for the destruction of Israel, his voter support appears to have surpassed that of Labor.  Playing on the fear of Israeli Arabs as a fifth column through support of Israel's enemies and in particular Jihad, has driven many into his camp.

It is not everyday that six major European leaders (PM Gordon Brown – Britain, Pres. Sarkozy – France, Chancellor Merkel – Germany, Pres. Berlusconi – Italy, PM Zapatero – Spain and EU President Todolanek of the Czech Rep.) show up for a one day tour in the Middle East including a stop in Sharm el-Sheikh to give support to Egyptian Pres. Hosni MuBarack and his Saudi counterparts and then continuing on for dinner with Israeli PM Ehud Olmert where they accord full backing to Israeli policy.  The uniting factor is to halt Hamas (the Moslem Brotherhood) rearmament and by extension make clear their goal of curtailing extremist Islam and Iran.  Israel declared a unilateral cease-fire at 2AM on Jan. 18 and Hamas followed suit half a day later.  All this coincided with the European diplomatic initiative.  But why so fast?

Hamas decided to go to war in the aftermath of the tahadiya (calm) by firing dozens of rockets into Israel each day for over a week (eventually reaching a daily count of 60).  The hope was to rally the Arab/Islamic world to their side, very similar to Yasir Arafat's strategy when he turned down the Camp David peace initiative and the Clinton Outline during the second half of 2000.  The Palestinian Authority's Low Intensity Conflict/Terror Offensive - better known as the "Second Intifada" in popular journalistic terminology failed miserably yet Hamas hopes to succeed as they expect an increasingly Islamicized Arab world to come to their aid. 

Reluctantly, Israel re-entered the Gaza Strip only three years and four months after leaving in August 2005.  The withdrawal was unilateral, yet accompanied by guarantees; Egypt was to ensure the halt of all contraband smuggling into the Strip while the Americans obligated themselves to stand behind Israel in its battle against terrorism even should Israel need to cross into Palestinian areas.  Rocket fire into Israel from Gaza began under Yasir Arafat's Fatah led Palestinian Authority rule already early in 2001, continued under Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) who was elected in January 2005 (Arafat died in Nov. 2004) and intensified when Hamas overthrew the PA regime in June 2007.  Whether discussing a hudna (Islamic cease-fire) or tahdiya (Islamic period of calm) the shell fire continued from Gaza into the western Negev.  The last tahadiya lasted half a year, from the middle of June to the middle of December and ended with a bang as Hamas began pounding Israel with 60 rockets a day.  Despite the expectation of rain, cold and the least optimal conditions, Israel decided to respond with massive air strikes on Dec. 27 and began a ground offensive a week later.